Professional Grade: Playoff stretch
GMC Pro Grade League: Week 11
It's that time of year. The playoffs are a mere three weeks away, and in the GMC Professional Grade League, our contending owners can smell 'em, taste 'em, feel 'em. Such is the story in most fantasy football leagues heading into Week 11; it's the time of year when the contenders need to finally make a statement.
The problem, though, at least for our league: Like the NFC South race, it seems like no one seems to want a playoff spot! With three regular-season weeks to play, four teams are tied for the No. 4 seed -- the final one in our league -- with a .500 record, and two more teams are within a game in the standings.
If you find yourself in a similar position today, surely you've experienced the wide range of emotions that come with the uncertainty of having to duke it out simply to squeak in the back end of your league's playoff system. Speaking with our owners, we run the gamut of feelings and expectations, and this week, I'll share their takes with you today.
Here they are, from our tiebreaker (total points for the season) leader in the No. 4 seed, down to the lowest-ranked team still within a game of playoff action:
• Nate Ravitz (4-4-2, fourth, beat Stephania Bell 93-78 in Week 10; 920 total points) might be in the best shape of anyone in the mix. He's the highest-scoring of our four .500 teams, and the hottest team in the league, in the midst of a four-game unbeaten streak (3-0-1). During that span, he's beaten three other contenders -- myself, Eric Karabell and Bell -- and tied current No. 2 seed Matthew Berry. Still, Ravitz believes the only approach to qualifying is continuing to control your own destiny.
"My guess is that one of the four [.500] teams in the running wins out, and therefore that's what it will take. I'm pretty confident," Ravitz said. "My team is on a roll and is a Hector and Victor heavy favorite to win this week, as well."
In Week 11, Ravitz's toughest choice came at quarterback, where Marc Bulger, in spite of his 29 touchdowns and 36 interceptions in 26 career games outdoors, got the edge over Jon Kitna, his quarterback in key wins against me (Week 7) and Karabell (Week 9).
"With Torry Holt, Steven Jackson and -- oh, by the way -- Bulger seeming to be back at close to full strength from their respective injuries, I have a high degree of confidence that Bulger will throw for 250-plus and at least two touchdowns," Ravitz said. "Part of me thinks Kitna is getting on a roll, with four touchdowns the last two weeks and three straight with 250-plus yards, but he's bitten me too many times to trust over a hot Bulger right now."
• Bell (5-5, fifth, lost to Ravitz 93-78 in Week 10; 869 total points), having been beaten and battered on the health front -- she used the phrase "most injury-prone team of all" -- is taking a little more conservative approach to her chances.
"With all my injuries, not sure I get [the No. 4 seed]," she said. "I am playing desperation for the final playoff spot. I want it bad."
Among Bell's most painful injuries this season: Ronnie Brown (lost for the season in Week 7), Brandon Jacobs (out in Weeks 2-4), Andre Johnson (out Weeks 3-9), Rudi Johnson (out in Weeks 4, 7 and 8, and playing like he's been "out" since Week 2) and DeShawn Wynn (lost for the season in Week 8). More painful, though, might be her having cut both Jesse Chatman and LenDale White at earlier stages of the season.
Fortunately, Andre Johnson marks his return in Week 11, as does his quarterback, Matt Schaub, in a matchup both she and I love. Still, despite the slow return to health of many of her players, Bell still has that "cursed" feeling.
"Because I am so decimated at the running spot, I trade you for DeShaun Foster," said Bell, lamenting her earlier-season dilemmas. "Then he's supposed to have a huge game at Atlanta, does so every year. What happens? He leaves the game early because of his toe, getting me next to nothing. Back on the injury report. I'm just sayin.'"
For Week 11, Donovan McNabb got the nod for Bell, ahead of Brett Favre, whom I also traded her in the Foster deal. McNabb's four-touchdown effort last week, as well as his matchup against Miami, was the decider.
• I'm currently locked in at No. 6, at 5-5, and coming off a brutal 106-101 loss to Scott Engel, marking the second time all season the league's second-highest scoring team has not won his matchup -- Berry and Ravitz tied at 105 in Week 8 -- and the fifth time a team has scored 100 points yet lost. But I'm not complaining. Oh, who am I kidding, I am! Anyway, we'll get back to my team's prognosis later …
• Karabell (5-5, seventh, beat Howie Schwab 60-59 in Week 10; 780 total points) has long been a believer that it's not always the highest-scoring team that makes it into the postseason; sometimes, it's mere good fortune that makes your season. He's the second-lowest scoring team in the league, but has hopes of pulling this one off.
"As one of the lowly 5-5 teams, but a potentially dangerous one if LaDainian Tomlinson and Drew Brees bring their A games, I think I can make the playoffs in a bunched league," Karabell said. "Then again, with only 780 points all season, four ahead of the worst scoring team, I don't deserve the playoffs."
Faced yet again with outstanding quarterback depth, and a tough choice once again between Drew Brees and Tony Romo, Karabell opted for the better matchup: Brees against the Texans. Can you blame him? Brees has five consecutive two-touchdown games, and the Texans in recent weeks have been, well, bad defensively, to say the least.
Karabell's bold playoff prediction, incidentally: "I'll objectively pick Berry and [Howie] Schwab to win the divisions, with Stephania and … me claiming the last two spots."
• Engel (4-5-1, eighth, beat Cockcroft 106-101 in Week 10; 912 total points) was the unlucky fella to lose Adrian Peterson this week, though despite that, he's as confident as ever, especially having eked out that painful five-point victory against yours truly. Engel says Peterson's loss might be the one thing standing in his way of a comeback, something that "could hurt my momentum," but hey, he loves the spoiler role at least!
"We had a great game, me and you, but fate dictated that one of my own would not beat me," he said, referring to my Matt Hasselbeck, quarterback of his favorite team.
If Engel is to pull off the comeback, he'll do it riding Ben Roethlisberger in his breakout season. He called the Steelers quarterback "more mobile" and less mistake-prone than his fallback option, out-of-nowhere stud Derek Anderson.
Being objective, though, Engel went with the favorite when pressed for a prediction on the eventual No. 4 seed; he picked Ravitz, whom he said "didn't look like a contender early in the year. … He's the Jimmie Johnson of fantasy football, always a strong finisher."
• Though Christopher Harris (4-6, ninth, lost to Berry 73-64 in Week 10; 776 total points) remains mathematically alive, he's hardly holding out hopes of a comeback, having lost a key game against the league's current No. 2 seed.
"My loss last week finished my team, but we'll go out in a blaze of glory!" Harris said. "Larry Johnson's injury can officially be considered our death knell. … If we had LJ, we'd be a rough playoff out, but as it is, we'll have to content ourselves with the spoiler role."
Harris, now indeed a spoiler hopeful with playoff combatants Bell, Karabell and Engel remaining on his schedule, still boasts two respectable running backs in his hopes to make a miracle run. In his shoes, I wouldn't be so apt to throw in the towel, not yet at least …
"Maurice Jones-Drew turns out to have been a very nice value pick, and I still have hopes for LenDale White this week," Harris said. "He's heading back home to Denver for a prime-time game where his entire family will be in attendance, and he gets to run against a terrible Denver front seven."
As promised, let's return to my team, and coming off back-to-back 100-point performances, I'm hopeful of at least giving the playoffs a run. Of course, with Berry, Bell and Schwab (7-3, first, lost to Karabell 60-59 in Week 10) rounding out my schedule, it'll be a fierce, uphill climb. Plus, at 854 total points, fourth-fewest in the league, I'm not in great shape tiebreaker-wise. I need something, anything, for my squad to get that "fight" back …
"Honestly, I have not given [my lineup] much thought, because I know I am going to roll you, Tristan," said Berry (6-3-1, second, beat Harris 73-64 in Week 10). "You will taste defeat at my hands for the second straight week."
OK, that's it, font settings, click to "Times," bold, hmmm, 64-point type … and to the printer it goes! Somehow all this feels like Week 8, when Ken Daube (6-4, third, beat Nando Di Fino 82-69 in Week 10) termed my team a "cupcake," leading to my last locker room posting. (OK, so I don't have a locker room, it's really on my office door.) Daube took it on the chin that week, so let's hope the strategy sticks!
Here's the painful part, though: Berry did roll me in Week 3, 123-110. Combined with the loss to Engel, I'm the only team to have lost two 100-plus-point performances in the league this season. Sure, I'm complaining again, as anyone might be in those circumstances, but the bottom line is, if I can scratch my way into the playoffs, I'll have earned it. It'll take 100-plus to have a chance to win here, so that's my aim.
To that end, until I know how serious Plaxico Burress' ankle issues are, I can't trust Eli Manning, even against the Lions. It's incredible to think that matchup doesn't get the nod ahead of Matt Hasselbeck against the Bears, but that's how things have shaken out the past month-plus. Chicago's defense is no longer the dominant threat it once was, and Manning's top receiver is suddenly one giant question mark. Jeremy Shockey, though, gets the nod ahead of Tony Gonzalez. I just don't trust Brodie Croyle, not yet.
Check out what I've got staring me down across the field, though:
"I've got Tom Brady and I've got Willie Parker against the Jets," said Berry, only beginning to boast his team's impressive Week 11 matchups. "Yes, I have Marshawn Lynch lost, but I have Laurence Maroney versus Buffalo and Earnest Graham versus Atlanta to choose from. I'll probably go with Graham here as the Falcons are brutal against the run and the Bucs have had two weeks to prep. At wideout, with T.J. Houshmandzadeh and Wes Welker no-brainers, I just have to decide on Maroney, Santonio Holmes or Brandon Marshall for my flex. Right now I am leaning toward Holmes, but I might roll the dice with Maroney."
Something tells me crossing my fingers won't be enough!
Tristan H. Cockcroft covers fantasy sports for ESPN.com. You can e-mail him here.
